Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Cramer, E. Y., Ray, E. L., Lopez, V. K., Bracher, J., Brennen, A., Castro Rivadeneira, A. J., Gerding, A., Gneiting, T., House, K. H., Huang, Y., Jayawardena, D., Kanji, A. H., Khandelwal, A., Le, K., Mühlemann, A., Niemi, J., Shah, A., Stark, A., Wang, Y., … Reich, N. G. (2022). Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(15). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2113561119
Authors:
Estee Y. Cramer
Evan L. Ray
Velma K. Lopez
Johannes Bracher
Andrea Brennen
Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira
Aaron Gerding
Tilmann Gneiting
Katie H. House
Yuxin Huang
Dasuni Jayawardena
Abdul H. Kanji
Ayush Khandelwal
Khoa Le
Anja Mühlemann
Jarad Niemi
Apurv Shah
Ariane Stark
Yijin Wang
Nutcha Wattanachit
Martha W. Zorn
Youyang Gu
Sansiddh Jain
Nayana Bannur
Ayush Deva
Mihir Kulkarni
Srujana Merugu
Alpan Raval
Siddhant Shingi
Avtansh Tiwari
Jerome White
Neil F. Abernethy
Spencer Woody
Maytal Dahan
Spencer Fox
Kelly Gaither
Michael Lachmann
Lauren Ancel Meyers
James G. Scott
Mauricio Tec
Ajitesh Srivastava
Glover E. George
Jeffrey C. Cegan
Ian D. Dettwiller
William P. England
Matthew W. Farthing
Robert H. Hunter
Brandon Lafferty
Igor Linkov
Michael L. Mayo
Matthew D. Parno
Michael A. Rowland
Benjamin D. Trump
Yanli Zhang-James
Samuel Chen
Stephen V. Faraone
Jonathan Hess
Christopher P. Morley
Asif Salekin
Dongliang Wang
Sabrina M. Corsetti
Thomas M. Baer
Marisa C. Eisenberg
Karl Falb
Yitao Huang
Emily T. Martin
Ella McCauley
Robert L. Myers
Tom Schwarz
Daniel Sheldon
Graham Casey Gibson
Rose Yu
Liyao Gao
Yian Ma
Dongxia Wu
Xifeng Yan
Xiaoyong Jin
Yu-Xiang Wang
YangQuan Chen
Lihong Guo
Yanting Zhao
Quanquan Gu
Jinghui Chen
Lingxiao Wang
Pan Xu
Weitong Zhang
Difan Zou
Hannah Biegel
Joceline Lega
Steve McConnell
V.P. Nagraj
Stephanie L. Guertin
Christopher Hulme-Lowe
Stephen D. Turner
Yunfeng Shi
Xuegang Ban
Robert Walraven
Qi-Jun Hong
Stanley Kong
Axel van de Walle
James A. Turtle
Michal Ben-Nun
Steven Riley
Pete Riley
Ugur Koyluoglu
David DesRoches
Pedro Forli
Bruce Hamory
Christina Kyriakides
Helen Leis
John Milliken
Michael Moloney
James Morgan
Ninad Nirgudkar
Gokce Ozcan
Noah Piwonka
Matt Ravi
Chris Schrader
Elizabeth Shakhnovich
Daniel Siegel
Ryan Spatz
Chris Stiefeling
Barrie Wilkinson
Alexander Wong
Sean Cavany
Guido España
Sean Moore
Rachel Oidtman
Alex Perkins
David Kraus
Andrea Kraus
Zhifeng Gao
Jiang Bian
Wei Cao
Juan Lavista Ferres
Chaozhuo Li
Tie-Yan Liu
Xing Xie
Shun Zhang
Shun Zheng
Alessandro Vespignani
Matteo Chinazzi
Jessica T. Davis
Kunpeng Mu
Ana Pastore y Piontti
Xinyue Xiong
Andrew Zheng
Jackie Baek
Vivek Farias
Andreea Georgescu
Retsef Levi
Deeksha Sinha
Joshua Wilde
Georgia Perakis
Mohammed Amine Bennouna
David Nze-Ndong
Divya Singhvi
Ioannis Spantidakis
Leann Thayaparan
Asterios Tsiourvas
Arnab Sarker
Ali Jadbabaie
Devavrat Shah
Nicolas Della Penna
Leo A. Celi
Saketh Sundar
Russ Wolfinger
Dave Osthus
Lauren Castro
Geoffrey Fairchild
Isaac Michaud
Dean Karlen
Matt Kinsey
Luke C. Mullany
Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett
Lauren Shin
Katharine Tallaksen
Shelby Wilson
Elizabeth C. Lee
Juan Dent
Kyra H. Grantz
Alison L. Hill
Joshua Kaminsky
Kathryn Kaminsky
Lindsay T. Keegan
Stephen A. Lauer
Joseph C. Lemaitre
Justin Lessler
Hannah R. Meredith
Javier Perez-Saez
Sam Shah
Claire P. Smith
Shaun A. Truelove
Josh Wills
Maximilian Marshall
Lauren Gardner
Kristen Nixon
John C. Burant
Lily Wang
Lei Gao
Zhiling Gu
Myungjin Kim
Xinyi Li
Guannan Wang
Yueying Wang
Shan Yu
Robert C. Reiner
Ryan Barber
Emmanuela Gakidou
Simon I. Hay
Steve Lim
Chris Murray
David Pigott
Heidi L. Gurung
Prasith Baccam
Steven A. Stage
Bradley T. Suchoski
B. Aditya Prakash
Bijaya Adhikari
Jiaming Cui
Alexander Rodríguez
Anika Tabassum
Jiajia Xie
Pinar Keskinocak
John Asplund
Arden Baxter
Buse Eylul Oruc
Nicoleta Serban
Sercan O. Arik
Mike Dusenberry
Arkady Epshteyn
Elli Kanal
Long T. Le
Chun-Liang Li
Tomas Pfister
Dario Sava
Rajarishi Sinha
Thomas Tsai
Nate Yoder
Jinsung Yoon
Leyou Zhang
Sam Abbott
Nikos I. Bosse
Sebastian Funk
Joel Hellewell
Sophie R. Meakin
Katharine Sherratt
Mingyuan Zhou
Rahi Kalantari
Teresa K. Yamana
Sen Pei
Jeffrey Shaman
Michael L. Li
Dimitris Bertsimas
Omar Skali Lami
Saksham Soni
Hamza Tazi Bouardi
Turgay Ayer
Madeline Adee
Jagpreet Chhatwal
Ozden O. Dalgic
Mary A. Ladd
Benjamin P. Linas
Peter Mueller
Jade Xiao
Yuanjia Wang
Qinxia Wang
Shanghong Xie
Donglin Zeng
Alden Green
Jacob Bien
Logan Brooks
Addison J. Hu
Maria Jahja
Daniel McDonald
Balasubramanian Narasimhan
Collin Politsch
Samyak Rajanala
Aaron Rumack
Noah Simon
Ryan J. Tibshirani
Rob Tibshirani
Valerie Ventura
Larry Wasserman
Eamon B. O’Dea
John M. Drake
Robert Pagano
Quoc T. Tran
Lam Si Tung Ho
Huong Huynh
Jo W. Walker
Rachel B. Slayton
Michael A. Johansson
Matthew Biggerstaff
Nicholas G. Reich
Affiliated Authors:
Teresa K. Yamana
Sen Pei
Jeffrey Shaman
Yuanjia Wang
Qinxia Wang
Shanghong Xie
Columbia Affiliation:
Author Keywords:
forecasting
covid-19
ensemble forecast
model evaluation
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Publication Type:
Article
Unique ID:
10.1073/pnas.2113561119
PMID:
35394862
DOI:
10.1073/pnas.2113561119
Journal:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Publication Date:
Data Source:
Scopus
Source Link:
View Scopus Record
View Web of Science Record

Record Created: